Su Lin, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and President of the Republic of China, Vision of China

On August 21, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and President Surin, who had just concluded his visit to China on the 20th, presided over the second meeting of the Personnel Group of the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in Vietnam. Su Lin was the head of the personnel team of the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China at the meeting, which is scheduled to be held in 2026. Surin mentioned that it is necessary to inherit the ideas and directions put forward by the former head of the personnel team and the late General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong at the first meeting of the personnel team.

On July 19, Nguyen Phu Trong, who was elected at the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam and served as General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam for the third time, passed away during his term. On August 3, Su Lin, who was born in the public security system, was unanimously elected as General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam at the Plenary Session of the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam. On August 18, Su Lin, who had only taken office for half a month, visited China for the first time in accordance with usual practice. During this period, the two sides signed 14 cooperation agreements and a joint statement to promote the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries and deepen the construction of a China-Vietnam community with a shared future.

From Nguyen Phu Trong to Surin, whether the changes in Vietnam's top leaders will affect Vietnam's previous agendas of developing the economy, combating corruption, and balancing diplomacy has attracted much attention from the outside world. What signals did Surin's visit to China send?

Su Lin's visit to China has become a hot topic

After graduating from the Vietnam Public Security Academy in 1979, 67-year-old Surin has been working in the public security system. He was the main executor of the "melting pot" anti-corruption campaign promoted by Nguyen Phu Trong during his lifetime. Before Nguyen Phu Trong's death this year, Vietnam's top leadership changed frequently, and Surin's coming to power once attracted public attention.

In 2013, Nguyen Phu Trong launched an anti-corruption campaign called the "Melting Pot". In 2014, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam promulgated a new "Intra-Party Election Rules". The age of members elected to the Political Bureau for the first time shall not be greater than 60 years old, and the age of members elected to the Central Committee for the second time shall not be greater than 65 years old; members or alternate members elected to the Central Committee for the first time shall not be greater than 50 years old. In 2016, under the new electoral rules, Su Lin, then 59 years old, entered the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and was elected as a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam. He also served as deputy director of the Anti-Corruption Steering Committee of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam. Those who joined or re-joined the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam that year also included: Vietnamese President Vo Van Thang who resigned on March 20 this year, Vietnamese National Assembly Chairman Dinh Hoe, who resigned on April 26, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Pham Binh Minh, who was dismissed in January 2023, and Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phu, who resigned, as well as current Vietnamese Prime Minister and Lieutenant General Pham Minh Zheng of Public Security.

After the resignation of Dinh Hoe and Vo Van Thang, who were implicated in the anti-corruption campaign, in addition to Nguyen Phu Trong, only 65-year-old Prime Minister Pham Minh Zheng was left in Vietnam's "troika." On May 18, Su Lin, who served as Minister of Public Security, was nominated as President of the State. On June 26, Fan Mingzheng came to China to attend the Summer Davos Forum and met with Chinese leaders to discuss strengthening economic cooperation between China and Vietnam.

On July 19, Nguyen Phu Trong passed away. On August 3, Surin unanimously voted to take over the post of General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam.

What is noteworthy is that after Su Lin came to power, he carried out a series of intensive internal adjustments, and some officials in the public security system were promoted. Nguyen Thanh Trong, a Vietnamese political scientist and professor at Fulbright University in Vietnam, told The Paper News (www.thepaper.cn),"Vietnam's recent political changes have happened too quickly. The public may not yet understand what is happening or the next step. Where to go.They will hope that in the next few months, Vietnam's party, government and parliament will settle down, once again achieve unity, and strive for common goals, especially economic goals. Surin concurrently serves as General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and President of the State. This is a rare situation in Vietnam, and the people have more expectations for him for the future.”

On August 18, Su Lin, who had just completed half a month in office as General Secretary, began a three-day visit to China. The Vietnamese delegation visiting China with Surin was of high caliber. Zhao Weihua, director of the Center for Relations between China and Neighboring Countries at Fudan University and an expert on Vietnamese studies, accepted the surging news (www.thepaper.cn) mentioned that the party and government departments involved in the visit include the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the Organization Department of the Central Committee, the External Affairs Department of the Central Committee, the General Office of the Central Committee, the Vietnam Fatherland Front, the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Public Security, the National Assembly, etc., all of which are Vietnam's core departments and are "fully mobilized", reflecting the full importance Surin and Vietnam attach to China and China-Vietnam relations.

Specifically, Su Lin's entourage included (some): Liming Xing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Secretary of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, and Minister of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee; Nguyen Chun Sheng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, President of the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Political Affairs, and Chairman of the Theoretical Committee of the CPC Central Committee; General Pan Van Kiang, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Public Security; General Liang Sanguang, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of the Ministry of Public Security; Li Huaizhong, Secretary of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of the External Affairs Department of the CPC Central Committee; Nguyen Viok, Secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee and Director of the General Office of the Central Committee; Chen Liuguang, Member of the Central Committee and Vice Premier of the Government; Assistant General Secretary and Assistant President of the State, etc.

Among them, Minister of Public Security Liang Sanguang became a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam at the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam held in Hanoi two days before his visit to China (16th). Another member of the delegation, Tran Liuguang, member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and Deputy Prime Minister in charge of economic work, was appointed Minister of Economic Affairs of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam the day after the end of his visit to China (21st). Data show that the Ministry of Economy of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam assists the Political Bureau and Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam in regularly and directly guiding the construction and improvement of economic departments and planning major economic and social policies, principles and measures.

Chen Liuguang, who holds a master's degree in public administration, is considered to be an important economic official in the Vietnamese government. He served as secretary of the Municipal Party Committee of Haiphong, a municipality directly under the central government from 2021 to 2023. Haiphong City has the largest port in northern Vietnam and is the third largest in Vietnam. City and the second largest industrial center in northern Vietnam. The former minister of the Ministry of Economy of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam was Tran Junong. He was one of the members of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee elected at the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2021. However, he resigned from his party and government positions in January 2024 due to corruption and retired. The position began to become vacant until Chen Liuguang was appointed on August 21.

In addition to the delegation's high-profile profile, Vietnamese domestic media also provided high-intensity and first-time coverage of Surin's visit, from the first day of Guangzhou's trip, to the talks and tea talks with Chinese leaders on the second day and the signing of cooperation agreements, to Surin's visit to the Central Party School on the third day, to the summary of international media reports on Surin's visit on the 21st, from expert interviews to current affairs comments, the forms and densities were diverse and high-frequency.

Xu Liping, a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, mentioned in an interview with Vietnam News Agency that the news of General Secretary Su Lin's visit to China has become headlines in major news media and has become a hot search, which is enough to reflect the importance of General Secretary Su Lin's visit to China this time.

Promote a new positioning of China-Vietnam relations

As a tradition, Su Lin visited China for the first time after taking office. Nguyen Ha Giang, a Vietnam expert at the Yusuf Issa Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, commented on the paper,"The main purpose of (Surin) this visit is to assure China that Vietnam is committed to maintaining friendly relations between the two countries, especially considering Vietnam's recent political changes and leadership changes."

Considering the background of Surin's public security status, there are more speculations about Surin's diplomatic style, but Nguyen Thanh Trong believes that "Surin is actually a pragmatist who will continue to maintain the balance of the major powers"; Nguyen Ha Giang also believes that "Surin is likely to inherit Nguyen Phu Trong's 'bamboo diplomacy'."

In August 2016, Nguyen Phu Trong quoted Ho Chi Minh as saying at the Vietnam Diplomatic Work Conference that the Communist Party of Vietnam has created a "unique, bamboo-like" diplomatic style in diplomatic practice, which was summarized by Nguyen Phu Trong in 2021 as "determined to build and develop 'Vietnamese Bamboo Diplomacy' with both modern and national characteristics."

On the first day of his visit to China, Su Lin stayed in Guangzhou for one day. Vo Chun Kang, a Vietnamese political columnist and doctoral student in political science at Boston College, wrote on August 21 that Su Lin's visit to China is not only eye-catching bilateral agreements between China and Vietnam, but also his special visit to Guangzhou, a city that plays a pivotal role in the history of the Communist Party of Vietnam. In less than a day, Su Lin arranged a tight itinerary in Guangzhou, visiting multiple memorial sites related to Ho Chi Minh and other Vietnamese revolutionary fighters, and holding talks with Huang Kunming, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee.

The Vietnam News Agency mentioned in intensive reports that 2024 marks the 100th anniversary of the arrival of Vietnamese revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh in Guangzhou as an adviser to the Communist International to carry out revolutionary activities. Ho Chi Minh's poem,"Vietnam and China have a deep friendship, comrades add brothers", which has been quoted many times by leaders of China and Vietnam, originated from Ho Chi Minh's participation in the Vietnam and Chinese revolutions in Guangzhou and other parts of China.Vu Xuan Kang commented that Surin's visit to the site commemorating the revolutionary friendship between China and Vietnam expressed his desire to preserve and develop General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong's contribution to the relations between the two countries.

In addition to revolutionary friendship, Guangdong Province is also of great significance to Vietnam's economy. During talks with Huang Kunming, Su Lin spoke highly of the good results of local cooperation between Guangdong Province and Vietnam. Data shows that Guangdong is the region with the largest trade between China's provinces and Vietnam. Chinese customs statistics show that in 2023, the total trade between Guangdong and Vietnam will reach 48.245 billion US dollars, accounting for 21% of the total trade between China and Vietnam. Among them, Vietnam exported US$22.896 billion to Guangdong, and imported US$25.349 billion from Guangdong. In the first six months of this year, the total import and export trade between Guangdong and Vietnam continued to increase by 29.69% year-on-year, reaching US$26.812 billion. It is worth noting that among the 14 cooperation documents signed at the signing ceremony of cooperation documents between various ministries, industries and localities between China and Vietnam held on August 19, Vietnamese agricultural products such as freshly eaten coconuts, farmed crocodiles, and frozen durian are also products favored by consumers in Guangdong Province.

In addition to his trip to Guangdong, Su Lin also visited the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the third day. Su Lin emphasized that the cooperative relationship between the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Ho Chi Minh National Political College in Vietnam has lasted for more than 30 years... Contribute to strengthening the field of bipartisan cooperation. During the visit, the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China also signed a memorandum of cooperation for the new era with the Ho Chi Minh National Institute of Political Affairs of Vietnam. Surin suggested promoting the political advantages of inter-party relations and strengthening theoretical exchanges on issues such as party building, governance, ideology, etc.Wu Chunkang also wrote during his observation that Su Lin also mentioned that Vietnam can learn from China's methods of cultivating party members and cadres.

In addition, Su Lin's visit is also a step forward after the repositioning of China-Vietnam relations last year. When President Xi Jinping visited Vietnam in December last year, the two sides announced a new positioning for the relations between the two parties and two countries of China and Vietnam, and worked together to build a China-Vietnam community with a shared future of strategic significance on the basis of deepening the China-Vietnam comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. During Surin's visit to China, China and Vietnam issued the "Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam on Further Strengthening the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership and Promoting the Construction of a China-Vietnam Community with a Shared Future." The statement mentioned that we should strengthen information exchange and experience sharing on anti-interference, anti-secession, and prevention of "color revolutions" to jointly safeguard political security and institutional security; jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea; strengthen China-Vietnam land border cooperation, and successfully manage China-Vietnam land border The 25th anniversary of boundary demarcation and the 15th anniversary of the signing of the "Three Legal Documents".

The Associated Press said that Surin chose China for his first visit after being elected General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, which shows that Vietnam still attaches importance to China while strengthening relations with the United States and other countries. In addition, a Vietnamese source told Reuters that Surin will next attend the United Nations General Assembly in September as the President of Vietnam and meet with U.S. President Biden during the conference. Vietnam continues to maintain a cooperative attitude towards the United States and emphasizes the importance of economic opportunities. Especially considering that in early August, the U.S. Department of Commerce just decided not to recognize Vietnam's market economy status, this seems to be a blow to Vietnam-U.S. economic cooperation.

"Market economy status is just a bargaining chip used by the United States to 'coerce' and 'lure' Vietnam. It has practical significance only when resolving trade disputes. In order to win over Vietnam, the United States adopts a tolerant attitude towards Vietnam on economic and trade issues. However, for Vietnam, the United States is Vietnam's largest export market, and Vietnam is a foreign trade-driven country, so it is difficult for Vietnam to 'offend' the United States. Vietnam cannot withstand U.S. sanctions and attacks, so this will affect Vietnam's role in major power competition and some choices in the global market." Zhao Weihua said. But at the same time, Nguyen Ha Giang mentioned,"Since the beginning of this year, China-Vietnam trade has grown significantly, and Vietnam can benefit greatly from it.Surin may invite China to invest more in Vietnam, which also constitutes a "safe haven" for Vietnam's economy in the competition between major powers.”

Railway cooperation-huge impact on Vietnam's economic sector

There was once public opinion, especially the Western media, that Surin's resume was mainly concentrated in the public security department and his lack of economic and administrative experience might affect Vietnam's economic policies. Zhao Weihua analyzed the paper and said that developing the economy is a major consensus among Vietnam's top leaders. No matter which system Vietnam's leadership comes from, it is clearly aware that only economic development can support Vietnam's dream of a strong country. Nguyen Thanh Trong also analyzed to The Paper News that Su Lin sent a signal during his trip to China that he is not only a senior public security system worker, but also tends to develop the country's economy and knows how to manage the country.

In an interview with The Paper, Zhao Weihua analyzed that Vietnam is now in the transformation period of the fourth industrial revolution. There is a shortage of labor in the high-end fields and a surplus of labor in the mid-to-low-end fields. As a result, a "labor shortage" and a "unemployment wave" coexist. "This may actually affect Vietnam's political stability and is also a common problem and challenge faced by developing countries. During his visit to China, Su Lin is likely to exchange views and exchanges with Chinese leaders on these issues." Zhao Weihua said.

"The Vietnamese government very much needs financial, market and trade opportunities from China to promote its economy. Vietnam is working hard to realize its action plan to continue to advance the country's industrialization and modernization, which requires resources, technology and cooperation. Facing the future, especially in the railway field, Surin wants to promote more investment from China." When analyzing the paper's news, Nguyen Thanh Trong mentioned that although the outside world has repeatedly hyped the narrative of "supply chain transfer" and there is indeed competition between Vietnam and China, the economies of the two are generally complementary.

On August 5, construction of the Dechong Funan Canal in Cambodia, built by a Chinese company, started and is planned to be completed in four years. Zheng Jiyong, director of the Center for North and South Korea Studies at Fudan University, wrote in an observation that after the completion of the canal, Cambodia's dependence on Vietnamese ports will be directly reduced to 10%.

On August 19, when Xi Jinping and Surin held talks, they pointed out the direction for deepening practical cooperation between the two countries, saying that they should "actively explore and expand the docking cooperation between the 'Belt and Road' initiative and the 'Two Corridor and One Circle' framework" and "accelerate the advancement of railways," hard connectivity "of highways and port infrastructure","improve the 'soft connectivity' of smart customs", and "work together to create a safe and stable industrial and supply chain."

Among the 14 newly signed cooperation documents, Two documents related to railways have attracted attention-"Certificate of Transfer of Files between the Government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and the Government of the People's Republic of China on the Results of the Planning and Approval of Vietnam's Lao Tse-Hanoi-Haiphong Standard Gauge Railway Line" and "Official Letter between the Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China and the National Agency for International Development Cooperation on the Feasibility Study of Technical Assistance Projects for Planning of Two Standard Gauge Railway Lines of Lang Son-Hanoi and Mangjie-Ha Long-Hanoi." It has taken Vietnam a step towards upgrading its French colonial gauge to a gauge that can be seamlessly connected to Chinese railways. Railway cooperation was also one of the important topics discussed in overseas media before Su Lin's visit to China.

Vietnam's railway standards are complex, including three types of railways: narrow gauge railways built during the French colonial period, wide gauge railways built with aid from the Soviet period, and standard gauge railways built with aid from China. Its specific reconstruction is difficult.

The joint statement issued by the two countries on the 20th mentioned that China agreed to provide support for Vietnam in formulating the Lang Son-Hanoi, Mangjie-Ha Long-Haiphong Standard Gauge railway project plan and the Lao Tse-Hanoi-Haiphong Standard Gauge railway project feasibility study report. Promote the pilot construction of smart ports for the China-Vietnam Friendship Guard-Friendship, Puzhai-Xinqing Special Freight Corridor. Actively explore and carry out pilot construction of cross-border economic cooperation zones to jointly create a safe and stable industrial and supply chains.

In fact, during the Chinese leader's visit to Vietnam in December last year, the two sides signed an agreement that mentioned cross-border railway cooperation.

"Railway projects are of great significance to both Vietnam and China. For Vietnam, this is not only about connectivity, but also promoting bilateral trade. The sites mentioned already have infrastructure connected to China. It's very convenient to build a new system next to an existing one." Nguyen Thanh Trong told The Paper News.

Nguyen Thanh Trong also said,Discussing railway projects and railway standards with China and reaching consensus means applying Chinese technology in Vietnam."It will have a huge impact on other Vietnamese industries that may have reservations about Chinese technology. For China, I think this is a good opportunity to showcase its achievements in high-speed rail technology and reduce the cost of these technologies."

Vietnam is surrounded by the sea on three sides and has a long and narrow territory, with a north-south span of 1600 kilometers. The North-South high-speed railway project, first proposed by former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, is scheduled to be approved and completed in 2025, started in 2030, and fully completed in 2050. But the project stalled while seeking financial and technical assistance from Japan, Germany and South Korea.

According to the Vietnam Government News Network on June 25, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Zheng told Lou Qiliang, Chairman of China Railway Communications and Signal Group during the World Economic Forum in Dalian that Vietnam needs China's assistance in railway design, construction and technology transfer. Vietnam's news website "VnExpress" reported on the same day that Vietnam's Minister of Transport Nguyen Van Thanh also sought China's support to provide assistance for the 1500-kilometer high-speed rail project connecting northern and southern Vietnam.

Wu Chunkang wrote in his observation that in the first seven months of 2024, China ranked first in terms of foreign direct investment in Vietnam, and Vietnam remains China's largest trading partner in ASEAN. Trade volume is expected to increase in view of the two countries 'commitment to simplify customs documentation and enhance connectivity.