A flag flies in front of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. Visual China Data Map

While the world's eyes are focused on the U.S. election, the next ruling team of EU institutions will gradually take the stage with the ongoing European Parliament hearings and related deliberations. According to CCTV news reports, from November 4th to 12th, the European Parliament held a hearing to review the 26 European Commission commissioners nominated by the President of the European Commission one by one.

AFP reported on the 12th that several key figures in the next EU institutions will be questioned by the European Parliament on the same day, including former Estonia Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and former French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne. The two are expected to serve as vice chairmen in charge of the European Commission's diplomacy and security and industrial strategy respectively.

AFP called on the new EU institutions and leaders to prove their worth so that Europe can be competitive enough in the face of the two major forces of China and the United States.

With the release of the results of the U.S. election, what uncertainties will "Trump 2.0" bring to US-Europe relations and China-EU relations have aroused heated discussions outside the world. Recently, many scholars analyzed and pointed out in an interview with The Paper that the new EU institutions may continue the established policy towards China. Feng Zhongping, president of the European Society of China and director of the Institute of European Studies of China Academy of Social Sciences, told The Paper News (www.thepaper.cn) at the press conference of the research report on "China-EU Relations in a Multipolar World" held in Beijing on November 9,"After Von der Leyen is successfully re-elected as President of the European Commission,'security and defense' and 'economic competitiveness' may dominate the new EU institutions 'work agenda for the next five years." He believes that the EU will not give up promoting the "risk removal" policy, but will eventually seek economic cooperation with China.

Cui Hongjian, director of the Center for European Union and Regional Development Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, pointed out in an interview with The Paper that in the face of Trump's return to the White House,"Europe has two concerns, one is economic and trade, and the other is the Ukraine crisis. Europe does not want to be passive and is still lucky about the United States." As for how the results of the U.S. election will directly or indirectly affect China-EU relations, Cui Hongjian said that "we need to wait until Trump officially returns to the White House to observe in detail."

A glimpse of the new European Commission's China policy

At present, in the delicate period of China-EU economic and trade relations, internal political trends in the EU are bound to have an important impact on China-EU relations in the next stage. Some analysts believe that after Von der Leyen was successfully re-elected as president of the European Commission, the new EU leadership is shifting to a "more coordinated and radical stance on China."

As the "foreign minister" of the EU, the attitude towards China of the incoming EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and former Estonia Prime Minister Kalas deserves attention. European think tanks bruegel and Chatham House have pointed out that Karas has "a radical stance on Russia" and a tough attitude towards China. During Karas's term as prime minister, Estonia withdrew from the "16+1" cooperation mechanism between China and Central and Eastern Europe.

According to the "Governor of Chang 'an Street", on October 22, Kallas outlined how she would conduct EU diplomacy in a written reply to European parliamentarians. Kalas described China as one of the EU's "systemic competitors.""The primary task of my engagement with China is to maintain the EU's geopolitical and economic security." She sees "unfair competition caused by structural imbalances" between the EU and China as one of the most pressing challenges.

In this regard, Feng Zhongping observed that "security and defense" and "economic competitiveness" will become the main work directions of the new EU institutions in the next five years. He said,"The EU may continue to promote 'risk-removing', but for the EU, after the implementation of the 'risk-removing' policy for China, it may face practical difficulties. If Europe wants to achieve economic growth, it cannot be separated from cooperation with China."

He pointed out,"Although China and Europe face a lot of noise, both ideological and geopolitical influences, the EU still needs to return to cooperation with China. (The EU) cannot avoid China in terms of economic and trade investment, global governance, and response to climate change issues." However, Feng Zhongping also admitted that there are certain difficulties in the cooperation process between the two sides."For example, in the Ukraine crisis, Europeans have many misunderstandings about China."

At the same time, comprehensive reports from the Global Times and Russian Sputnik News Agency reported that EU Trade and Economic Security Commissioner candidate Maros Sevkovic recently stated at a European Parliament hearing that the new European Commission will mediate with the United States and China. Trade dispute. "China is the EU's most complex trading partner and should balance its relationship with it." He also said that after the EU imposed a significant tariff increase on China's electric vehicles, EU representatives are now negotiating product prices with China.

Jorge Toledo, head of the EU delegation in China, said in Shanghai on November 9,"The EU does not want to enter into a trade war with China... I just want a transparent and fair market environment." At the same time, he pointed out that imposing additional tariffs is a means to solve the impact of "subsidies" on the European electric vehicle industry, but if we can find another alternative solution with China,"we will accept it."

How "Trump 2.0" affects EU foreign policy

The Global Times quoted Hong Kong's South China Morning Post as saying that Tuo Yaohui made the above comments on the 9th at a time when US Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump won the election, leaving Brussels in anxiety. Tuo Yaohui said on the 9th that the results of the US election "may change the global landscape and may also serve as an opportunity for China and Europe to restore normal relations."

At the press conference of the research report on the 9th, Cao Lei, deputy director of the European Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, said that the dust settled in the US election once again confirmed the complex evolution of a century of changes and the turning point of the times. "I believe that no one is willing to regain the jungle rule of the weak, no one is willing to return to the Cold War era of camp confrontation, and no one is willing to continue my exclusive unilateral hegemony. This is the background of China-EU relations. We are at an important crossroads." Cao Lei reiterated that China is fully confident in properly handling complex challenges and promoting the sustained and healthy development of China-EU relations.

Feng Zhongping believes that "after Trump comes to power, Europe may start to think more about strengthening cooperation with China in various aspects."

Earlier, Politico EU, the European edition of the U.S. Political News Network, reported on November 6 that Europe has begun to worry about the return of "trade protectionist" Trump to the White House, compounded by the spillover effects of the postponement of the Ukraine crisis."The EU is in a fragile moment." During the campaign, Trump threatened to restart a trade war with Europe, withdraw support for Ukraine and withdraw his security commitments to NATO.

Cui Hongjian told The Paper News that in the face of the arrival of "Trump 2.0," Europe has two concerns, one is economic and trade, and the other is the Ukraine crisis. Since Europe relies heavily on the U.S. market, it may face pressure from the United States in the economic and trade field. On the other hand, the EU and the United States are also prone to having more differences on the Ukraine crisis and defense issues.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, all walks of life in Europe have felt the urgency of achieving "strategic autonomy and defense autonomy."

In July this year, von der Leyen made "defense autonomy" a priority goal after his re-election, and also newly established the first defense commissioner in EU history. According to CCTV news reports, the establishment of the first Defense Commissioner is a major measure taken by the EU in terms of independent defense and a manifestation of strengthening its own security and competitiveness.

"In addition to responding to the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU is also aware that with Trump once again entering the White House, the United States 'security commitment to Europe has become increasingly uncertain." Feng Zhongping said. However,"there is still a certain gap between the ideal of EU defense autonomy and the reality. With Trump returning to the White House, Europe must think about how to 'make a living' in defense." he said.

In addition to foreign policy, European trade may also face challenges. Trump said in October that if he won the election, the EU would "pay a huge price" for not buying enough U.S. exports. Politico EU believes that Trump's previously declared tariff measures will have a direct impact on Europe and hinder transatlantic trade. The last thing Europe needs is to launch a trade war with its two largest trading partners, the United States and China.

Some European officials and analysts even worry that Trump's second term may make the EU's own situation "worse" because the EU is now more dependent on U.S. liquefied natural gas to meet its energy needs. Von der Leyen said on November 8 that the EU may consider replacing Russian supplies with U.S. liquefied natural gas.

A senior EU official said,"In order to bring Trump to the negotiating table and reach an agreement, the EU is ready to quickly and effectively counterattack Trump's tariff measures. However, the first shot of the 'trade war' has not yet been fired, and the EU's first reaction is still to call for friendship and cooperation."

Cui Hongjian analyzed that what the EU is most troubled at present is that its communication methods with the United States are about to undergo great changes. "Judging from Trump's first term, Trump rejected almost all bilateral negotiations and often implemented a certain policy directly in the European market in a unilateral manner. Therefore, we can see that the EU has begun to engage with Trump's transition team. I think this is an attempt by the European Union-still taking chances with the United States, such as limiting the United States to the scope of negotiations on economic and trade issues."

"Whether it is in the field of economic, trade and tariffs or the Ukraine crisis, the EU is already prepared. If these preparations fail, the EU may consider whether it needs to appropriately rely on China's power." Cui Hongjian pointed out in particular,"Of course, there are still factors that cannot be ignored-how is Sino-US relations heading? On the whole, all this requires observing how Trump will make his first move against Europe and China after January 20 next year. By then, there will probably be more accurate judgments and predictions."