Recently, fluctuations in gold prices have affected market nerves. The unit price of Jinshike, a domestic gold jewelry brand, has exceeded the 800 yuan mark several times. During this period, it fluctuated and is still operating at a high level.

Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen strongly, constantly breaking record highs. What impact does the rise in gold prices have on the market? What is the trend of gold jewelry consumption? This newspaper conducted an interview.

Gold prices hit new highs many times

Consulting prices, selecting styles, and learning about promotional activities... On November 23, there were many consumers in the gold store area of a shopping mall in Chaoyang District, Beijing.

"I heard that the price of gold has dropped a little recently. Let's take a look at my favorite styles." "I am also concerned about the changes in gold prices. It is approaching the end of the year and I want to buy some jewelry for my family to see if the time is right." In front of a gold counter, two consumers discussed.

"The overall price of gold has risen quite a lot. Some consumers have come to the store to check it several times, but still feel it is a little expensive. Of course, there are also people who will take action when they see it." The counter staff said.

International gold prices have fluctuated and rose all the way this year, hitting record highs many times. On October 30, the intraday high of gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) exceeded US$2800 per ounce and closed at US$2,799.1 per ounce, breaking the historical record again. After entering November, international gold prices fluctuated. As of the close of trading on November 22, COMEX gold was trading at US$2,718.2 per ounce. "In the first three quarters, geopolitical conflicts continued, the global economic recovery was weak, gold's hedging and hedging function received renewed attention, and gold prices continued to rise strongly, constantly setting new highs." The relevant person in charge of the China Gold Association analyzed.

In the domestic gold market, the closing price of Au9999 gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange at the end of September was 595.25 yuan/gram, up 23.80% from the opening price of 480.80 yuan/gram at the beginning of the year; the weighted average price in the first three quarters was 529.14 yuan/gram, up 19.78% from 441.76 yuan/gram in the same period last year.

The rise in gold prices has driven the price of gold jewelry by domestic gold jewelry brands to continue to rise. At the end of October, it once exceeded the 800 yuan per gram mark, and the retail price of gold jewelry by many brands exceeded 820 yuan/gram. Subsequently, the price of gold jewelry fell briefly and experienced shocks. On November 15, the gold price of major domestic brands such as Laomiao Gold, Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, Luk Fook Jewelry, Xie Ruilin, and Zhou Liu Fook was around 775 yuan/gram; By November 24, the gold price of major domestic brands gold stores returned to above 800 yuan/gram.

Although gold prices fluctuate at high levels, there are not many consumers who inspect the market and make inquiries at the gold jewelry counter. "I mainly came here to take a look at the styles and have an idea in mind. I will buy them when the price of gold falls." Lu Xiaozhou, a consumer who is looking for gold bracelets and four-leaf clover bracelets, said that he will continue to pay attention to the price trend of gold and wait for the right time to purchase. Some people believe that if the price of gold rises, the profits of the goldsmith industry will be better. However, the current market feedback is not entirely true. Data shows that since the beginning of this year, same-store sales revenue of many gold jewelry brands has dropped significantly, and some companies have closed stores with poor sales.

Xiaoke heavy gold ornaments are more popular

China is a major consumer of gold jewelry. However, the current high gold price directly affects the consumption of gold jewelry.

A staff member of a well-known jewelry brand store said that in the past, several solid gold bracelets could be sold in one day, but now it is rare to sell one. The range of jewelry acceptable to most customers is 2,000 - 5,000 yuan. Compared with heavy gold jewelry, 5g of zodiac and co-branded jewelry sells better.

"I tend to buy small Kezhong products. After all, the price is not that far behind compared to some time ago, and I won't feel too bad." said Liu Yujie, an office worker who is currently planning to buy gold ornaments. Middle-aged and elderly consumers are more sensitive to prices. "My sister got married in 2008, and I bought a bracelet for her. I remember that the price of gold ornaments at that time was about 260 yuan including labor costs, and the cost of more than 30 grams of gold bracelets was about 8000 yuan. Now, I can't even get 20,000 yuan." Ms. Sun, a Shanghai consumer, said that now when buying gold jewelry, she will choose small jewelry such as earrings and pendants, but the total price is not high.

"Affected by international gold prices, sales of gold products show certain uncertainty." Liu Yan, vice president of Yuyuan Jewelry Fashion Group, said that the rise in gold prices means an increase in design and purchase costs, and some consumers may delay purchasing or reduce their budgets to purchase small gramme-heavy gold products.

In the first three quarters, national gold consumption was 741.732 tons, a decrease of 11.18% compared with the same period in 2023. Among them, gold jewelry was 400.038 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.53%. "In the first three quarters, gold prices have been rising all the way, and gold jewelry consumption has been significantly affected." The relevant person in charge of the China Gold Association believes that the rapid development of new e-commerce models such as live streaming and instant retail has driven the growth of Xiaokezhong gold jewelry consumption.

"Small but beautiful" is becoming the focus of many gold jewelry brands.

Liu Yan introduced that Laomiao Gold combines the brand's own characteristics and has successively launched small Kezhong gold products that are fashionable, interesting and more in line with the aesthetics of young people, such as the "A String of Good Luck" series of products. "The younger generation has gradually become an important consumer force in the gold market. The new products we have launched not only have the styles more in line with the aesthetics of young people, but also have more and more resonance with young people, such as the 'A String of Good Luck' and 'Rich and Surplus' series. It is becoming a new choice for consumers to please themselves and give gifts." Liu Yan said.

At the same time, major gold brands have successively launched preferential activities, hoping to "add fire" to consumption.

Offline, various stores have put up eye-catching promotion signs, with endless tricks such as "80 yuan discount on gold","40% off the cost of production","8.8 percent off 3 pieces" and "superimposed lucky draw for birthday members". The shop assistant will offer a variety of full reduction and matching plans, apply for hand gift benefits, and even provide free refined services such as rope weaving, manicure, and hand mask,"rolling" a new level of marketing.

Online, major gold stores are competing to start live broadcasts to bring goods. Some brands use low-priced gold ornaments ranging from 99 yuan to 399 yuan to attach multiple giveaways, and at the same time interspersed the promotion of high-priced products such as gold bracelets, using a "hamburger style" approach to good prices and "combination boxing". Some second-tier brands have also opened up niche live broadcast tracks such as gold bar lettering and 1 gram of heavy gold bean wholesale, seeking digital "breakthroughs."

More based on long-term investment

Compared with gold jewelry, consumption of gold coins and gold bars has become more eye-catching this year.

In the first three quarters, the national consumption of gold bars and gold coins was 282.721 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.14%. "In the third quarter, gold prices continued to fluctuate at a high level and expectations for increases increased, and physical gold consumption declined somewhat. However, overall, consumption of gold bars and coins with relatively low premiums in the first three quarters was still able to maintain a large increase." Analysis of the relevant person in charge of China Gold Association.

A relevant person in charge of a gold jewelry brand said that the rise in gold prices since the beginning of this year has also attracted many investment consumers to seek opportunities to maintain and increase value. The heavy investment gold bars are even in short supply.

"Gold bars have a lower premium than gold ornaments, and I prefer to trade gold as an investment product." Li Yongxuan, a consumer who has long been concerned about the trend of gold prices, said that he will continue to pay attention to the trend of gold prices to decide whether to invest in gold bars in a "small position".

However, some consumers believe that now is not a good time to "sell". Mr. Zhang, born in the 1980s, has maintained the habit of buying gold bars for many years."In the past, when the gram price of gold was more than 400 yuan, we bought more gold bars. Every time we entered and exited the country and went to the airport, we would go to duty-free shops to buy some. But now that the price of gold is high, it feels not cost-effective."

"For ordinary investors, investing in the gold market should be more based on long-term investment." Relevant people in the industry believe that in the long run, the correlation between the price trends of gold and other assets such as stocks is weak. Some investors will invest a certain proportion of their assets in gold. On the one hand, they will play the value preservation function of gold, and on the other hand, they will use gold and other assets. Volatility characteristics stabilize the return of the entire investment portfolio. However, when participants enter the market, they should also choose the investment and consumption methods that suit them.

Recently, many institutions have released reports that are optimistic about gold prices. Goldman Sachs and UBS believe that gold will hit another record high this year and next. Goldman Sachs said gold could provide a safe haven against risks such as escalating trade tensions. UBS reported that in the context of high macroeconomic volatility and persistent geopolitical risks, continued strategic gold allocation and official sector purchases should drive gold prices up.

Looking forward to the trend of China's market demand in the fourth quarter, the World Gold Council reported that the fourth quarter is the traditional wedding peak season, and demand for wedding gold ornaments is expected to increase; coupled with retailers 'replenishment before the Spring Festival holiday, there is certain seasonal support for gold ornaments demand in the fourth quarter. However, demand for gold ornaments still faces uncertainties such as high gold prices. (Li Jie and Tang Jing)