In the first three quarters of this year, the Guangdong city of Shantou, GDP fell into negative growth.

Data shows that in the first three quarters of 2024, Shantou's GDP was 227.930 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% at constant prices. This figure is not only lower than the average growth rate of Guangdong Province (3.4%), but further widens the gap with Shenzhen, the province's leading growth city (5.4%). It also lags behind the growth rate of Chaozhou (4%) and Jieyang (5.3%) in eastern Guangdong.

If the time span is lengthened, in 1980, in the early days of reform and opening up, my country established four special economic zones-Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Xiamen and Shantou, and Shantou ranked among them. Today, Shantou's economy is only one-eleventh of Shenzhen's, and the gap with other special economic zones is widening.

What challenges does Shantou's development face?

Shantou City Scenery Map/Picture Bug Creativity

Why negative growth

In fact, in the first half of this year, Shantou's GDP was still in a positive growth range. Data shows that Shantou's GDP in the first half of this year was 149.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The negative growth in the first three quarters was the first time in recent years.

Official data shows that calculated at constant prices, in the first three quarters of this year, the added value of Shantou's primary industry was 10.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%; the added value of the secondary industry was 102.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 114.676 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%.

In other words, the biggest reason why Shantou experienced negative GDP growth this time was the decline in the secondary industry.

Although the overall GDP in the first half of the year was still in the growth range, Shantou's secondary industry has begun to decline. Official data shows that in the first half of this year, Shantou's primary industry grew by 3.7%, the secondary industry fell by 5.2%, and the tertiary industry grew by 4.8%. The tertiary industry drove GDP growth by 2.4 percentage points. This means that the reason why Shantou did not fall into negative growth in the first half of the year was that the tertiary industry contributed a lot.

In the same period, the added value of Shantou's industries above designated size was 32.212 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%. The explanation given by the local statistics bureau is that the textile, garment and apparel industry, the culture, education, industry, beauty, sports and entertainment products manufacturing industry, the rubber and plastic products industry, and the printing and recording media reproduction industry are still depressed, driving the added value of industries above designated size to drop by 15.3 percentage points.

In addition to the decline in the secondary industry, as a coastal city, Shantou's import and export in the first three quarters were also not optimistic. According to Shantou Customs data: In the first three quarters of 2024, the import and export of Shan Tou City was 41.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%. Among them, exports were 34.09 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year; imports were 7.23 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year.

It is understood that toys and textiles and clothing are Shantou's two major traditional characteristic industries.

"In terms of import and export, the foreign trade of cities with a relatively high proportion of traditional industries is often more affected. Such industries are more easily affected by the overall situation. At present, some domestic traditional industries with short industrial chains have been partially transferred to Southeast Asian countries. However, industries with technical barriers or long industrial chains are on the contrary and are difficult to transfer." Song Ding, a researcher at the national high-end think tank CDI, analyzed. In Song Ding's view, correspondingly, there are more and more high-tech products or industrial products with long industrial chains in the export trade products of cities like Shenzhen, and such export products are relatively less affected.

According to Ding Li, an economics researcher at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, this is closely related to the ability of small and micro enterprises to resist risks. He said: "In traditional industries, small and micro enterprises account for a higher proportion and a larger number. The ability of such enterprises to resist risks is relatively weak. Shantou's traditional industries account for a relatively high proportion. Under the current situation, many small and micro enterprises that rely on exports are more vulnerable to impact."

Behind the continued decline in ranking

In addition to negative growth, if we lengthen the time span, we will find that Shantou's ranking among cities in the country continues to decline.

In 1979, my country established four export special zones for the first time, namely Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou and Xiamen. The next year, in 1980, the export special zone was renamed a special economic zone, and these four cities also began a strike-forward road of economic development.

Before 1991, Shantou's GDP could rank among the top 30 in the country. However, after Shantou was split into Shantou, Jieyang and Chaozhou in 1991, its ranking suddenly fell outside the 50th place in the country, and fell out of the top 100 list in 2011.

In 2023, Shantou's GDP will be 315.8 billion yuan. From a national perspective, the city ranked 100th in GDP is Fuyang, Anhui Province, with a GDP of 332.37 billion yuan. Shantou's difference is about 16.6 billion yuan.

Industrial structure is also an important issue. According to Shantou's official formulation, toys and clothing are still Shantou's two important pillar industries.

In fact, at the beginning of reform and opening up, Shantou, as one of the special economic zones, quickly established a large number of labor-intensive light industries such as clothing, ceramics, food, and toys with low energy consumption and quick results. At that time, Shantou relied on the model of "developing one area, building one area, putting one area into production, and benefiting one area" to develop rapidly.

"Since the beginning of reform and opening up, the main industries in the entire Pearl River Delta have been concentrated in the 'three supplies and one subsidy' industries, concentrated in light industrial products such as textiles, clothing, and toys. However, in recent years, Shenzhen and Dongguan and other Pearl River Delta cities have had their industrial structures Constantly adjusted and upgraded, such as the proportion of electronic information, home appliances, machinery and other industries has continued to increase and has now become its pillar industries. However, Shantou is slow at this step, and the proportion of such industries is still relatively low. Many industries are still stuck in some export-oriented industries that were initially introduced." Song Ding said.

Is "urban integration" the way out?

On December 7, 1991, the State Council issued the "Reply on Guangdong Province's Adjustment of the Administrative Divisions of Shantou and Chaozhou." Chaozhou City was upgraded to a prefecture-level city; Jieyang County was abolished and Jieyang was established as a prefecture-level city. Since then, the Chaoshan area has been divided into three. In recent years, calls have arisen from time to time to re-merge Shantou, Jieyang and Chaozhou into one city.

In 2014, Chen Jingwei, then deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, proposed the development idea of integrating the three cities in Chaoshan. In his view, the unreasonable administrative divisions in Chaoshan area have brought about economic and social development problems. Administrative barriers have brought about spatial separation and resource dispersion, making Chaoshan's location advantages, special zone advantages and overseas Chinese hometown advantages unable to be exerted normally; In addition, the administrative divisions that have been adjusted several times have not only failed to achieve the original intention of promoting the overall development of Chaoshan, but have instead intensified local social conflicts and are not conducive to the integration of resources and healthy development of the three cities of Chaoshan; Finally, administrative barriers artificially divide the Chaoshan cultural circle, which is not conducive to sincere cooperation between Chaoshan people at home and abroad.

In 2020, some netizens left a message online expressing the hope that Shantou, Jieyang and Chaozhou will merge into a Chaoshan New District, attracting more villagers and overseas Chinese to invest. The Guangdong Province Department of Civil Affairs responded to this, saying it would strengthen strategic research.

Judging from the map, the total area of Shantou, Chaozhou and Jieyang is 11119 square kilometers, which is comparable to the area of cities such as Xi'an, Hefei and Qingdao. As of the end of 2023, the three cities have a permanent population of 13.78 million, and the city centers are only more than 20 kilometers apart. Customs, culture and dialects are very similar.

"To a certain extent, the Chaoshan area was divided into Shantou, Chaozhou and Jieyang, allowing the already limited resources invested in eastern Guangdong to be dispersed again, resulting in a lack of cohesion in the development of the three places." Song Ding said that appropriately concentrating resources and making every effort to introduce resources from central and state-owned enterprises is a key step for the sustainable development of the Chaoshan region.

However, there are also many voices who believe that the three cities have been "separated" for more than 30 years, and it will be difficult to merge again. Ding Li analyzed that it would be difficult to directly merge the three cities and involve too much scope. For example, the interests of the administrative systems of the three prefecture-level cities would not be easy to coordinate.

On December 20, 2023, the website of the Guangdong Province released the "Shantou-Chaozhou-Jiakou Metropolitan Area Development Plan"(hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). The plan is clear that the Shantou-Chaozhou-Jieyang metropolitan area includes the entire three cities of Shantou, Chaozhou and Jieyang in eastern Guangdong. This plan not only involves industrial cooperation contents such as "cooperation and complementarity of modern industrial systems" among the three places, but also cultural cooperation contents such as "building the world's Chaoshan cultural capital".

The construction of the East Guangdong intercity railway currently under construction is an important measure to promote the integrated development of Shantou, Chaozhou and Jieyang. After the completion of the project, the transportation network in the Shantou-Chaozhou-Jiakou metropolitan area has basically been formed. The Main City of the three cities in the metropolitan area will be accessible in 30 minutes, and the entire area will be accessible in 1.5 hours.

In Ding Li's view, it is also possible to change the thinking and unify the three finances first without adjusting the administrative divisions. He said that the interests touched in this way will be much smaller. Only by sharing common interests can we better promote development.

Original title: "GDP is in negative growth, what's wrong with this special economic zone?"